Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.
As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents
Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:
52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents
1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME
El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!
Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Alaska margin has not changed now in several days, and they canāt activate the ranked choice voting until ALL the initial ballots are counted. Expect this all to change dramatically when the lower tier candidates are elimimated and 2nd, 3rd, 4th place votes are counted.
Mississippi - 97% Reporting - D+0.27 (2,574 votes!)
The lead for the Democrat has been slowly increasing since election day. Mississippi has no function for recounting. Election results must be reported to the state by Friday, 11/13.
Chart Follows:
| State | Current | Occupant | Status | D Cand | R Cand | Polling 10/18 | Outcome | Polling Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Democratic | Hickenlooper | Safe D | John Hickelooper | Mark Baisley | Called D | ||
| Delaware | Democratic | Coons | Safe D | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | Called D | ||
| Georgia | Democratic | Ossoff | Safe D | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Called D | ||
| Illnois | Democratic | Durbin | Safe D | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | Called D | ||
| Massachusetts | Democratic | Markey | Safe D | Ed Markey | John Deaton | Called D | ||
| New Hampshire | Democratic | Shaheen | Safe D | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Called D | ||
| New Jersey | Democratic | Booker | Safe D | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | Called D | ||
| New Mexico | Democratic | Luja | Safe D | Ben Ray LujƔn | Larry Marker | Called D | ||
| Oregon | Democratic | Merkley | Safe D | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | Called D | ||
| Rhode Island | Democratic | Reed | Safe D | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | Called D | ||
| Virginia | Democratic | Warner | Safe D | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | Called D | ||
| Minnesota | Democratic | Smith | D | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Called D | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | Tillis | D | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
| Alabama | Republican | Tuberville | Safe R | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | Called R | ||
| Arkansas | Republican | Cotton | Safe R | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | Called R | ||
| Florida | Republican | Moody | Safe R | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Called R | ||
| Idaho | Republican | Risch | Safe R | Withdrawn | Jim Risch | Called R | ||
| Kentucky | Republican | McConnell | Safe R | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | Called R | ||
| Louisiana | Republican | Cassidy | Safe R | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | Called R | ||
| Mississippi | Republican | Hyde-Smith | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Scott Colom | R+9 | ||
| Montana | Republican | Daines | Safe R | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | Called R | ||
| Nebraska | Republican | Ricketts | Safe R | Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | Called R | R Momentum since 10/1 | |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Armstrong | Safe R | NāKiyla Thomas | Kevin Hern | Called R | ||
| South Dakota | Republican | Rounds | Safe R | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | Called R | ||
| Tennessee | Republican | Hagerty | Safe R | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | Called R | ||
| West Virginia | Republican | Capito | Safe R | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | Called R | ||
| Wyoming | Republican | Lummis | Safe R | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | Called R | ||
| South Carolina | Republican | Graham | R | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | D FLIP | R Momentum since 8/29 | |
| Alaska | Republican | Sullivan | Tossup | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | D+3 | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 8/4 |
| Iowa | Republican | Ernst | Tossup | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 9/10 |
| Kansas | Republican | Marshall | Tossup | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 10/1 |
| Maine | Republican | Collins | Tossup | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | COLLINS CONCEDES | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 7/6 |
| Michigan | Democratic | Peters | Tossup | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | Called D | Possible R Flip | D Momentum since 8/17 |
| Ohio | Republican | Husted | Tossup | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/2 |
| Texas | Republican | Cornyn | Tossup | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
COLLINS CONCEDES!!!
Was her brow furrowed when she conceded?
I hope she learned her lesson.
FINALLY.
ITāS BEEN CALLED BY AP!
Dems took back the Senate!
Great! Iām waiting for Michigan and Mississippi now.
Holy shit, I didnāt even notice ol Mississip. It was looking red all night but I just checked after you pointed it out. Colom is up by 28 votes with 97% ballots counted so farā¦
That is the definition of neck-and-neck.
And yeah Michigan is the main reason Iām still up right now (that and the House!). Itās been tight all night but El-Sayed has been edging ahead for the past hour or so! 76% of the count is in so far
Yup! Only a matter of āBy How Much?ā
There is still a chance of 1 Republican flip, not enough to make a difference, but still possible.
Someone else just pointed out Mississippi might flip! I just checked and the Dem is up by 28 votes
This is so exciting!
Lol they might lose the Mississippi Senate race. Fucking MISSISSIPPI. That plus Georgia and Texas? Holy shit the GOP fucked up badly. š
Mississippi was marked āSafe Rā with a 9 point margin, which was even more āsafeā for them than Texas. That is absolutely insane.
Itās so damn close. Any idea when the final votes are counted there?
I sure do hate my state of Florida. They choose the worse outcomes everytime rewarding a woman who literally stole from them weak af.
To be fair, there is a lot of cheating going on down there. Theyāre changing election locations last minute and then not posting clearly where the new ones are. Iām sure there are many more fucked up things going down.
HOLY SHIT!
MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.
48.95% D
48.94% R97% Reporting with Cindy Hyde-Smith as the Republican.
Watching NBC:
There are 2 big counties to watch:
4100 votes left in a county leaning Democratic +60
4200 votes left in a county leaning Republican +3So if he gets +60% of 4100 and +47% of 4200ā¦
MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.
If this isnāt a compelling example of how every vote counts, I donāt know what is.
The fact that itās even close says enough
NPR reports that Democrat Roy Cooper has won North Carolinaās open U.S. Senate seat, a flip.
Fuck ya, they got rid of Susan Collins.
El-Sayed is giving a victory speech but the race has not yet been called by the AP or anyone elseā¦
51.8% to 46.2%.
Rogers told his supporters to go home.
Edit Race called for El-Sayed!
54 minimum, 55 likely, 56 possible.
ābest case 52ā
lol
President Trump would like to offer his input on the results tonight.
I wasnāt on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
I think he knows heās fucked.
Gallons of ketchup just flying at the walls tonight!
I sense a disturbance in the Force.
Thousands of Goppers going, āThey wonāt take Mississippi. They wonāt FUCKING take it. FUCK!ā
apnews showing 52. Anyone know what changed? I still only count 6 flips
They arenāt counting the safe undecided seats.
I look forward to Trump looking at these numbers and saying ātheyāre not mad at me, theyāre mad at the republicans who arenāt meā
Edit: per the economist
22:37 EST | Mr Trump has responded to tonightās results for the first time, writing on social media: āI wasnāt on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!ā He had repeatedly encouraged voters to āpretend Iām on the ballotā ahead of election day. On Monday the White House touted the presidentās ārelentlessā 20-state midterm campaign tour.
Lololol
You called it! Heās so blatantly pathetic.
Iām in Michigan and Iām really nervous about the senate race. Theyāve been predicting itāll be close but Iām still on the edge of my seat about it. And Detroit takes forever to count their ballots
With the rest of results, Iām confident that El-Sayed has it, but also nervous because elections and disappointment are pretty much inseparable to me after the last ten years. Iām suspicious things have been going so well.
I seem to remember that Michigan broke late to Biden.
Woo!
Young Americans. Donāt forget tonight. Donāt ever forget what the last two years of evil that was allowed free reign in the USA and across the world.
Also. I didnāt hear a peep about Idaho this cycle, and even theyāre going Independent?!?!?(Early results showed 47% I 40% R itās no longer). Like yeah they are a bumfuck redneck state but even the guy theyāre sending actually might support Bernie-style efforts to defeat anticompetitice oligarchies, billionaires, and might pass wealth taxes on them for deficit reasonsā¦Idaho is still 49 R, 41 I. Second I candidate pulling 6.8.
Would have been closer with only 1 I candidate.
It was closer to the other way around an hour ago but oh well, too bad. The fact that an alternative is even imaginable thereā¦
