That’s true if you just add percentages. But ranked choice includes the possibility of “exhausting” your ballot by just not listing a second or third or fourth choice. That’s how Peltola won her house seat initially. When you think about it as a vote gap of 4000ish votes with 9000ish votes to be gained in arbitragr, Dan has to win about 50% of all of those ballots. He’ll almost definitely get 50% of the non-exhausted ballots, but the analysis I’ve seen of the RCV results released to date shows him falling well short so far of 50% of all ballots once exhaustion is accounted for