• assembly@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    I don’t know much about Cuba. Anyone have a guess on how they would do in an engagement similar to Iran? I don’t recall seeing news about them building missiles or drones, they don’t seem to have allies that could help, and I have no idea if the local population is going to be looking to resist. Even if the population wants to resist, what are the odds they can? Sure guerrilla warfare will be likeliest outcome but would that allow them to hold a majority of the island?

    • dgdft@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      Spain invented the modern concentration camp trying to hold the island by force in the late 1800s.

      I think the Trump admin would probably try to do the same decapitation without boots-on-ground playbook they’ve done in Iran + Venezuela, but it wouldn’t be pretty if they tried landing troops.

      • ricecake@sh.itjust.works
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        1 month ago

        1800s are pretty different from today.
        Cuba never had a self sufficient military. Most of their heavy equipment came from the soviets and hasn’t been refreshed.

        The island is within helicopter range of multiple US airbases. There’s a well positioned military base already in place on the island.

        Holding a jungle with unwilling people fighting you is never going to be easy, but there’s a lot of differences between what Spain was against and what the US would be against.

        The biggest issue would be that Cuba could plausibly actually land an attack on the US. It would be basically a coin toss on if that made people furious at Cuba or the administration.

        • EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Cuba should’ve never surrendered the nukes the USSR lent them without a security guarantee and a set of strategic alliances.

          The evil empire of the United States is trying to take as many socialist states down with their failing empire as possible. If Trump steals the midterms, he’ll attempt to get Congress to grant him a 3rd term to continue these neo-colonial wars, though his old age means that he will likely die in office.