āPeople, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,ā Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.
The post Nate Silver Suggests āMomentousā Midterms Might Mark āthe End of the Trump Eraā first appeared on Mediaite.
Man there is nothing we love more than counting our chickens before they hatch, huh?
Strong polls encourage people to vote. Weak polls discourage participation and donations.
Just this year - Michigan primary - one campaign says their donations plummeted when fake polls claimed they were far behind.
And yet I keep seeing people on Lemmy say that polls being good discourages people from voting
The science doesnāt back that up.
Ask for numbers
Every positive poll, half the comments are people saying itās a psyop. Every negative poll, half the comments are people saying itās a psyop. I genuinely have no fucking clue what results people would consider above board at this point.
Presumably, neck in neck
My local ads have reverted to the shaming tactic - āyour vote is private, but anyone can look up whether you voted or notā. From my dad whoās been working the early voting location for my county, it sure sounds like theyāve had one hell of a turnout.
Ah yes famously reliable Nate Silver lol
He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.
All Nate Silverās models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.
Yeah this is just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, werenāt paying attention.
EDIT to correct typo.
People have a hard time separating peopleās expertise from their general opinions. Nate Silver the talking head is kind of an idiot. But Nate Silver the election modeling expert is worth taking seriously.
Definitely agree.
Shut up and Nate and fuck Ezra Klein.
Ezra Klein is fucking insufferable.
Donāt listen to polls, donāt let people keep you from voting to improve things, donāt put it offā¦
VOTE!!!
What well be funny is when it is a blue wave and nothing changes. They stilll let him do whatever he wants. Is that the tipping point?
Nah, itāll be alright. Plenty of people are voting and I have things to do. Besides, both parties suck anyhow so nothingās gonna change.
Literally what a coworker said to me today.
I voted, you should go vote too.
Fuck hope. Get angry and vote.
oh are we listening to him again? i aint buying any of that copium again.
Iād like to point out that in an interview where Nate Silver came out looking like an arrogant ass, he predicted Trump would lose the last election.
āPeople, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,ā Nate Silver acknowledged
Especially Nate Silverās interpretation of them.
ha oh is the coin flipping on the uniparty! that must mean theyre going to switch to the rainbow colored genocide bombs instead soon. ādemocracyā
The worst part of right before an election is all the accounts spamming ādonāt vote it doesnāt matterā out of nowhereā¦
This doesnāt work when people can see the difference with their own eyes. Your talking points are out of date. ŠŠ¾Š·Š²ŃŠ°ŃŠ°Š¹ŃŃ Š“Š¾Š¼Š¾Š¹ ā ŠæŠ¾Š»ŃŃŠøŃŃ Š½Š¾Š²ŃŠµ ŃŠŗŠ°Š·Š°Š½ŠøŃ.
Enjoy your āBoth sides botā tag on lemmy. Donāt care if youāre a bot or not, might as well be.
If so, I hope the media constantly and always mentions this, if not in the title, above the fold, in all articles related to donnie for the rest of his term.
