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Cake day: August 12th, 2026

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  • I found this article’s list of criteria for “inevitable technology” to make a strong case for coding agents and AI-assisted software development.

    • The technology can perform a task to a standard equal or not markedly inferior to that of an alternative technology doing the same task. The code I get from coding agents is better than code I can write myself. It’s better than most of the code I’ve seen from collaborators over the course of my career. I think it takes skill to get those results out of a coding agent, but that’s why I see coding agents as augmenting, not replacing, skilled programmers.
    • The task in question is socially valuable: we need a lot of it done, and it’s currently done by labour that is, in some sense, scarce. Writing software is very obviously this. Software engineers have always been scarce.
    • The technology can, in volume of adequate output or in quality of output, overwhelmingly outclass what alternative technologies can do. Absolutely. Armed with a coding agent I can produce thousands of lines of good, tested, understood code in a day (or tens of thousands if I skip the “understood” piece and reduce my criteria for “good”). Without a coding agent I tap out at a few hundred lines per day. A good IDE isn’t going to get me the same boost.
    • There’s no way in which the people not using the technology can change their behaviour to neutralise the impact of the technology. This one does have options: regulation. If people not using coding agents can pass or interpret laws such that code by coding agents cannot be sold, can’t have copyright applied, or is otherwise illegal, they might be able to stem the tide. At this point that’s getting into international treaty territory though, which is still possible - it mostly worked for copyright.

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