• 4 Posts
  • 23 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Lol wut?

    The Department of Justice is still owned by Trump.

    The best we can hope for is for the Democrats to propose a bill cutting ICE’s funding, for Trump to veto it and then the government shuts down. What happens after that I dunno, but I don’t expect such a budget shutdown to occur until 2027 at the earliest.



  • I feel like you are missing the current market feeling by zooming out so much.

    The market reaction this week, this MONTH is because of the AI trade in general. Coreweave becoming distressed. Google being forced to borrow money. Googles earnings being bad in AI age (and Google being forced into cloud more, which is worrying when neoclouds like Coreweave look shaky). Oracle threatening to fall to junk bond status. Anthropic releases S-1 showing $80 Billion GAAP net loss. Anthropic bonds starting at junk. OpenAI and Anthropic valuations decline by 25% (Anthropic expected an IPO valuation of $2 Trillion. The new expectation is $1.5 Trillion). Etc. etc.

    A lot of these financial reports and feelings only started in October.




  • Maybe Hegseth. The Iran war is clearly very unpopular and Trump is likely looking for a scapegoat. If Trump can be led to believe that sacrificing Hegseth is for Trump’s benefit, we can start with that.

    Going for Trump directly seems like a political mistake. There’s a lot of good we can do by going for some easier impeachments first. And with some smarts, we can play the Republicans against each other and weaken them before we move in for something bigger.


    Besides, removing Trump only puts JD Vance in charge. Its a lot of effort and high risk, without a big gain. Removal of Hegseth on the other hand is likely the best path we have towards making peace with Iran, no joke.





  • If the Democrats win the House of Senate, it’s very good news regardless.

    The Senate map is impossible. I mean it’s probably happening but Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina are supposed to be impossible.

    But it’s only going to truly matter if the memomentum continues into 2028. This year is an important first step forward but that’s all it is or can be, just a step.


  • We are getting more years of this shit regardless. The best Democrats can do is conduct investigations (that will be ignored), hold debates (that will be ignored), and pass laws that will be veto’d.

    That’s better than the alternative but don’t pretend like the midterms are going to be a major shift of power. Its just one step, the legislature. Republicans still have the Presidency and the Supreme Court backing them. Even if House + Senate go blue this year, that’s 1 branch vs 2 branches.


  • FiftyPlusOne claiming that Democrats have 80% chance of winning the senate, with the top probabilities being Democrats with 53, 52, 54, 51, or 55 seats. After 55 comes 50 seats (aka: Republican win after JD Vance’s tiebreaker vote).

    I dunno what has changed in the past weeks, but we’ve gone from ~52 seats “best case” for Democrats to ~53 seats “average case” and 55 seats “best case”.


    I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.


  • Duh?

    Even if Democrats take the house and Senate, Trump controls the white house and Republicans own the Supreme Court.

    We will likely stop harming Canada (ex: House and Senate can hold back Trump and prevent further damage), but we can’t undo the damage until 2028.

    Canadians are smart enough and understand our politics. They know 2028 at the soonest and even by then, it will take years or even decades to rebuild trust.

    And the House/Senate election isn’t even done yet. It only takes one standard polling error and bam, Republican sweep again. Literally that, all these races are within singular standard deviations. I hope the error favors Democrats this time but we don’t have anything locked down yet.

    It’s a long road ahead for all of us. Canada can and should plan without USA for the near term. But we Americans will eventually turn the ship around.





  • There was one weird agreement. During WW1, the Pope declared that a Christmas ceasefire should happen. Obviously, the Pope has no such power in these matters and the diplomats around the world failed to turn the Popes wish into any real ceasefire.

    But then, a bit of Christmas magic happened. It turns out that WW1 soldier conditions were so shit, that many soldiers wanted to go against orders and proceed with the Christmas ceasefire anyway (as an act of rebellion against their commanders).

    Legend has it that soldiers picked Still Nacht (aka: Silent Night), it being one of the few bilingual Christmas Carols. If both sides in the trenches started to sing the song, you knew it was safe to partake in the ceasefire, allegedly with another confirmation of Oh Come All Ye Faithful (another Christmas carol).

    This all proves one thing. It’s not the leaders or diplomats that really matter per se with ceasefires. It’s the soldiers at the bottom. If they refuse to shoot, then the ceasefire will happen. With orders, or (in the Christmas miracle…) sometimes AGAINST orders.


    It’s not a complete miracle, as some reports of fight / killing still happened during the Christmas Ceasefire. But there are reports of hundreds of thousands of French, British, and German soldiers exchanging Christmas gifts (coffee and other trinkets), playing soccer and more. So it largely was a success.