Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average
A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 ā some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.
Polls previously underestimated Trumpās support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.
I hope that it is a big blue wave and this corrupt lunatic will have a congress with a spine but I am getting 2016 Clinton hubris vibes.
Democrats arenāt winning shit. Regardless of the actual legit results, you can bet your ass that the Republicans wonāt concede power.
Bet your ass they will.
Republicans depend on the āgood copā to āsave the dayā by taking office and āfixingā things by rolling the gains back a bit (but not reverse anything).
ā¦ just as Democrats depend on Republicans to blame for their āfailuresā (like when they pretend to try and raise minimum wage).
You must be new to US politics. Itās a tag team. Watch and see.
Yep. Clear as day. Weāre all on the outside. No idea how no one sees it.
RepubliCrats anyways. Democratic Party is a branch of the Republican party today.
You might be correct.
The only thing Clinton and Harris taught me was that Dems (and boomers) dislike them some highly qualified, educated women.
I will vote dem predominantly going forward (bus analogy and all that) but damn, like folding pocket aces. The opponent makes it even more cutting.
Cool story, go vote.
Thatās the moral of the story here. We each control one vote and this is arguably our most important vote in history.
Seems like every vote is the most important vote of my life. Iām getting tired of it.
Whatās that emoji for when a comment makes you laugh then it hits and you kinda get a tear but are also mad at the system but also are tired?
Yes. Every vote IS the most important one because itās the one happening right now and is going to affect things in the very near future. Iām getting tired of dirty dishes but I still do them.
These arenāt dirty dishes. Iām tired of this system. Iām tired of the people running it. Iām tired of having the political beliefs leave other people the fuck alone, and thatās a hard concept for other people to follow. Iām just tired, and I donāt need people to tell me what I already know. But thanks for checking in.
Me too.
In a universe where Donald can win two elections literally anything is possible. His supporters would vote for a wet fart if it was directed at a minority.
No matter what happens, 46+% will not believe it.
No shit. The Dems, as usual, have failed to give the working class a reason to vote for them. They only ever give reasons to vote against their opponent. This strategy fundamentally fails to motivate anybody who isnāt already plugged into politics.
Leave it to Democrats to fuck up a cost of living mid term with high gas prices and a president in the low 30s approval rating.
This should be the biggest blow out this century.
Oligarchs are the source of the problem. Citizens United means more money supporting the fascists, and control of almost every media outlet means outright fascist propaganda on the "conservativeā networks, and minimized support for progressives on the āliberalā networks.
Establishment Democrats still give us better returns on human rights compared to the fascists, but they do bow to their oligarchal masters pretty well, yes.
The point is that progressives definitely do not have a majority in the US, much less the supermajority needed to squash fascism.
Itās up to us to deal with our oligarchs and go from there.
propaganda works on uneducated people
Nobody is immune. Youāre being constantly bombarded and youāre not catching all of it.
thereās no such thing as immune to ideas
there is definitely an inverse correlation between education and voting against your own interests though
Sure, I just want to point out to readers that thoughts like āwell it canāt happen to MEā or āthey canāt mean ME because I have a degreeā is wrong. Education will not shield a person, propaganda doesnāt work exclusively on the uneducated. It was meant more as a cautionary addition to your comment than a retort.
that is fair
It should, but we are surrounded with deeply stupid people stewing in a shit-ton of conservative propaganda.
Right now Dem leaders are crunching the numbers, figuring out how many bribe checks they can cash and still win 51% of the vote, or 50.00001%, even better. Their best political strategists are ON IT. Just like in the last election. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Not a single. effing. thing.
49.99999%. You can raise more money by almost winning, and thatās what the consultants are incentivised to do.
Payday is before and during elections. Not after
Payday is every day. they donāt stop receiving ādonationsā. Ever.
https://youtu.be/sI0vtqxoG1k?t=95
video content
Lex Luthor beats up The Question, while explaining: āPresident? Do you know how much power Iād have to give up to be President?ā
Hey! Itās hard work for them make sure that we have a tight margin so that we can always be JUST SHY of whatever the working class wants.
JUST VOTE āBLUEā HARDER
Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
Well, thatās because they canāt read, are too poorly educated to obtain a proper job to afford communication utilities, and/or stubborn. Majority of them are just pedophile criminal racists and enjoy their leaders being the same.
Trump supporters are also less likely to show up for a midterm, but they conveniently left that truth out of their clickbait.
Iāll take it if it scares more people to go out and vote. Never assume anything is in the bag
Iām not assuming weāll win but I also donāt believe that fearmongering works well on Dem voters. I saw a study a while back that showed that Dem and independent voters respond much more strongly to positive messaging than negative messaging. So I really donāt buy that scaring and stressing people out works.
Probably why we see so much āDemocrats in disarrayā messaging being pushed.
Also, all the trying to drive a wedge into the coalition by constantly talking about trans and how Democrats are āthrowing them under the busā and are ātransphobicā, etc. This is why the cons constantly pivot to talking about āmen in womenās sportsā bullshit, too.
Itās all to drive down the vote for Democrats and blunt the force of the blue wave.
Iām fine with a multiprong assault for this, fearmongering to get those that works on to show up, while the candidates themselves provide positive messaging, doesnt seem like those have to be mutually exclusive
What I hate is that some voters seemingly want to vote with the winning āteamā. Itās just as idiotic as it sounds, but I do think some people donāt want to vote Democratic if they hear they might not win.
While that might be true, Iām concerned that a lot of them are cowards, too cowardly to admit to pollsters that theyāre still gonna vote for Republicans, too cowardly to even research what Democrats and independents are offering, and too cowardly to ever break their routine of showing up to vote for Republicans every time.
Their poopy leader has strongly rigged the election seven ways from Sunday.
If the narrative becomes too one sided it might discourage flakey voters. One reason why every election cycle has to be life and death
Itās the shy voter effect. When politicians are unpopular, people donāt like to admit to supporting them. In most historical cases, this correlates with low turnout, so the effects on polling tend to cancel out. When Trump has been on the ballot, this correlation hasnāt held up the same way, and polling has slightly underestimated MAGA turnout.
Basically it depends on how ārealā you think Trumpās unpopularity actually is. Are these people done with him, or just annoyed enough not to talk to pollsters?
Calling the majority of any large sample size pedophiles is quite the stretch.
Except for when that sample comes from a massive group of pedophiles.
Wow 38-39M Trump supporting pedophiles not even including all the others! Impressive but seems completely unrealistic.
Turnout is all that matters, and polls anticipate turnout/motivation.
Always be voting for lesser evil! Rural people get luxury gay space communism voting lines. Seniors/evangelicals always turn out. You better believe that evangelicals hold their nose when they vote for Trump, but Armageddon and Israel worship is part of their programming. If you be voting, then your opinions will matter in the future. If not, then you will be safely ignored, because lemme nazis will remind you the only time politics matter to you, that DNC is shit.
Seniors now have -21 net approval of Trump down 24 from Oct 24. They may vote against him.
Rural voters overall have -20 net approval. Down 40 from Oct 24. Rural Republicans still net positive, but 26% disapprove of Trump, and 60% disapprove of Iran war related energy costs. There will be some flips from former, and more abstains from latter.
Show the fuck up. Protest DNC the next day, and organize next primaries or 3rd party.
I donāt think the polls are accounting for all the Republican and Trump voters that simply wonāt show up this year. Iāve talked to many that voted for Trump who said to me they aināt either voting ever again or not this time around.
If they tell the pollsters the same thing, their ālikely voterā models pick that up. This is by far record low net approval rates for a President heading to mid terms. Senate needed to stop shenaremovedns.
Did your reply really get censored for saying shenanigans? Someone needs to turn down the auto mod. Itās set to the hyper aggressive setting.
I possibly misspelled with 2 g s . Your version is clockwork oranging my eyes successfully.
WHOOPS
Yeah but theyāre fucking liars by nature or they wouldnāt have voted for Trump in the first place.
They also are emotional insecure people that hate being wrong so who knows
I was there in 2016. Aināt nothing in the bag.
Half the country in 2016:
Probably more than half, I wager a good number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 genuinely didnāt expect him to win
The polling has been very predictive when DJT isnāt on the ballot. That said, Iām not buying the rat poison.
Lol. It never is.
Wtf is so confusing to everyone else though? Your wife beating neighbor isnāt suddenly going to see the light. That person gets just as many rights as the rest of us.
The system is broken. The US cannot stand as a singular country anymore. The world is always going to fight and itās not always going to be our responsibility to police it. I donāt want to be Team America World Police. Let this place gooooooooo. Let these territories make laws that better fit their societies instead of playing two sides of the same coin for eternity.
Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.
The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two yearsā¦
No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.
And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.
Weāre on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.
Youāve been saying this so often and for so long that Iām really curious to see how youāre going to try and spin it when the DNC fucks over progressives like they always do. Ken Martin is like the second coming of Jesus to you for some reason.
I bet youāve never once looked up a bill and checked out the votes to see how Republicans blocked so many of them because the Democrats didnāt have enough of a voting majority.
Do you know why the Public Option was removed from the Affordable Care Act? Because Democrats needed 60 votes, and there were only 58 Democrats elected to the Senate, with 2 Independents voting with themā¦ 60 exactly - this gave extraordinary power to any Democrat who was against the public option (Joe Lieberman and 5 others). If 6 or more extra Democrats had been elected, the Lieberman 6 votes would have had no power. Or if just 6 Republicans out of the 40 had voted with the Democrats. Ha.
And in the end, I always see people blaming the Democrats, not the Republicans. Because nobody looks at the actual bills and how they are gutted or defeated because the people wonāt elect enough Dems to counter the Rep opposition. Shrug.
None of that is news to anyone paying attention. Obviously Republicans are terrible but if youāre going to hold Democrats up as our saviors then they need to actually save the day once in a while.
Republicans have faced the same exact power imbalance you described many times over the years and yet they have no trouble getting their legislative agenda passed. Why is that? Answer that question honestly and youāll know exactly why people blame Democrats for shit Republicans do.
Because they vote party lines as a monolith and the Dems donāt, which is what the person youāre replying to said but youāre too both sides ignorant to hear it. Youāre specifically stating right here that you donāt understand how legislation works or the government is intended to function at a fundamental level. Your opinion on things youāre currently ignorant about is about as valuable as an asshole on an elbow.
Progressive policies arenāt popular in the states.
Liberal ones are.
I guess that must be why progressive candidates pushed out a bunch of liberal incumbents in the primaries.
Oh shit itās almost like voting in the fucking primaries actually fucking works despite the lemmy narrative.
Yeah in New York and California.
Can you give me the top 5 most popular liberal policies?
Progressive taxation. Affordable Universal Healthcare. Public Infrastructure and Education. Reproductive rights for women. Voting rights. Providing a social safety net. Climate change. Regulating industrial pollution. Firearms regulation. Need any more?
The differences are in implementation, not in goals.
Take affordable universal health care for instance. The progressive position is Medicare for All. The Liberal position is taxing and regulating health insurance companies to force them to cover everyone, and force everyone to buy health insurance.
Got introduced legislation to back up your assertions here or we just making shit the fuck up?
Affordable lol. Yeah a very popular word. Without that word Universal Healthcare just tanks with the people doesnāt it? Gotta have it.
People love it when the things they need to live areā¦ with in reach [pause for massive applause]
Or even maybeā¦ realistically obtainable for most? [pause for wild deafening screams of adoration]
And can you name some progressive policies That are being pushed but people arenāt receptive to?
Depends on how you define āpushedā and āpeopleā. There arenāt really enough progressive politicians to push any policies, and there are plenty of policies that have some support, but not widespread support. Granted, theyāre typically policies that would provide widespread benefit, but have been so twisted by propaganda that the people vote against their own interests.
āFreeā healthcare and college are good examples, where people are unreceptive because they overestimate the cost and underestimate the cost of the present system.
Which doesnāt mean those policies arenāt popular. Theyāve simply been propagandized to be āfairy talesā. The opposition canāt argue over the policy itself because the policy is popular so they have to argue around it. Thatās where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or itās going to get exploited by āthe wrong peopleā and such. But it doesnāt make those policies unpopular. El-sayed is a great example because he runs on progressive policies and is very popular in his state. If the policies by nature were unpopular he wouldnāt be a popular candidate. Nobody gave a shit that Mike Rogers kept saying El-Sayeds policies are too expensive because El-Sayed cuts through that bullshit to keep people focused on what the policy actually is.
And if we go back to those popular āliberalā policies at least half of them are also progressive policies and some of them I wouldnāt even consider liberal, such as āPublic Infrastructure and Educationā. Modern American liberalism is against state socialism and state controlled public use of anything is technically state socialism. Liberals have simply adopted parts of progressive policies because theyāre so popular not adopting them would be stupid.
Thatās where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or itās going to get exploited by āthe wrong peopleā and such. But it doesnāt make those policies unpopular.
Popularity isnāt about anything other than the proportion of people in favor. If the majority of people believe the empty arguments around the policy, it will be unpopular.
The trickiest part of politics is dealing with the fact that people are mostly uninformed and uninterested, and grappling with the foolishness of the average citizen.
They can win a majority but it wonāt do much, and then people will get mad they didnāt fix everything they donāt like and swing back to maga in '28. The road to Idiocracy is paved with repeating bad choices.
There are still way too many people who thing republicans are decent people. Maybe itās because your mother or father is a republican, but that doesnāt make republicans good it makes your parents horrible.
I know, I talk to a few people who say their parents are ātrue conservativesā that voted Republican but hate donnie and didnāt vote for him (allegedly).
SMH. What the fuck even is a ātrue conservativeā? Just sounds like No True Scotsman stuff.
Cunts. Its an euphemism for cunts.
I live in rural Ohio, the number of signs that are proudly Republican is too damn high.
Iām always amazed, itāll just be some guys name and then āREPUBLICANā and thatās the whole sign, like itās a good thing.
who thin[k] republicans are decent people
Someone can be an omnicidal bigot, and still be nice to dogs and old ladies. They can even sometimes be nice to people who donāt look, sound, or think like they do.
Republicans probably define ādecentā as āopposing communism, non-whites, atheism, and Islamā.
Democrats probable define ādecentā as ānot being a bigotā.
Greens probably define ādecentā as āopposing omnicide, factory farming, genocide, authoritarianism, and capitalismā.
Republicans just really wanna use slurs and dont like seeing queer people in public. Theyāre quiet right now while the gas prices are high but theyāre still gonna vote ref again.
The last two DNC picks who lost seemed like they had it in the bag. They also talked about Trump more than they did their own policy.
Theyāre running the same strategy again.
Yup. Centrists who bitch about āblue no matter whoā are wasting their breath. The actual leftists still hold their nose and vote blue anyway. But the things that progressives point out, and that centrists refuse to change, are what cause the centrists to lose their elections. Centrists will bitch about online leftists condemning genocide support, but it wasnāt the progressives that caused Kamala to lose. It was mostly moderate and conservative Muslim voters who simply refused to vote for a genocide supporter.
