The Senate, where the GOP holds 53 seats, remains a toss-up, the conservative outlet says
For the first time this year, Fox News is projecting that Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives in Novemberās midterm elections.
In its latest power rankings Tuesday, the conservative outlet forecast that Democrats are favored to capture 219 seats ā one more than the 218 needed for a majority. Republicans were favored in 198 races, while 18 contests remained toss-ups.
āThe House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year,ā according to the Fox News analysis. āThe Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year. Now, as another 20 races shift leftward, this forecast sees the Democrats taking control.ā
Ignore polls, vote.
Vote early if you are able.
Yes. Also try and avoid mailing in ballot, use drop boxes if able.
Or early in person, Iām going on my next day off.
Yeah I donāt believe anything else Fox News says, why would I believe them about this? They may just be trying to motivate.
Yes, motivationā¦ which is actually hatred & greed in this case. These āpeopleā would never admit to failure unless it benefits them, itās a tactic besharted forth to get the fence sitting MAGATs to vote against their better interests so they can āown the Demsā.
Itās not āhatred and greedā, itās fear. Fear of losing.
ā¦ because if they lose & justice prevails theyāll all face the injustices they have enacted upon the entire world???
ā¦geeze, buy me a drink first before you get me all turned on like this.
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Not sure if serious
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I already voted. County confirmed it was received. Its your turn, vote early if you can!
Polls create political engagement. Silly to ignore them when they juice participation.
Probably trying to rile up their viewers so theyāll go out and vote.
Donāt forget making blue voters think itās gonna be alright, no need for them to go out and vote, everyone else already has it in hand.
Bingo!
More likely to have the opposite effect. Historically speaking, good poll numbers help a candidate and bad poll numbers hurt them. Thatās why low quality partisan polls are always boosting their own sideās numbers and not the other guy. Republicans are already far less enthusiastic about voting in the mid terms this year. Telling them their side canāt win is only going to discourage them that much more.
Fox News is a shit hole run by lying sociopaths, but they do take their political polling seriously. Itās one of the few areas where they have any credibility at all. I wouldnāt be surprised if theyāve been intentionally vague and overly cautious with their analysis of the data so that they can hide some of that potential blue wave in the big pile of toss up races. But you can only fudge things so much without looking incompetent, especially if they have to resort to more obvious methods of tipping the scales.
Honestly, the actual poll is barely even news at this point. A year and a half ago the conventional wisdom was that the Senate as safely red while the House was going to be tough fight. But for months now the House has been looking like a lost cause for the Republicans, and, especially in the last few weeks, the Senate is looking like an uphill battle for them too. Whatās newsworthy here is that Fox is actually reporting it.
See, this is what confuses me about these discussions. Youāre saying that it discourages people from voting if theyāre told their party canāt win, and yet lots of comments on this post are reacting as if telling people their party is doing good is telling them not to bother voting. I guess we shouldnāt have polls at all, since telling people their oarty has a good chance of winning and telling them their party has a bad chance of winning are both seen as telling them not to vote
At the extremes thatās going to be true. Elections where one candidate is viewed as being unbeatable tend to have lower turnout, while turnout is highest when races are highly competitive. Keep in mind though that thereās sort of a chicken and egg situation there. High levels of enthusiasm and therefore turnout also tend to make races more competitive, while safe seats are often the result of gerrymandering and other forms of political dysfunction that suppress voter turnout and political engagement in general.
But regardless of whether a race is competitive or virtually uncontested, you typically want to be the one thatās in the lead. People are more likely to support politicians they view as popular, for much the same reason that they are more likely to pay money for movies and books that can claim to be #1 somehow. The bandwagon effect can be a powerful thing.
And voter turnout is heavily dependent on enthusiasm, and itās a lot easier to be enthusiastic when your side doesnāt look like itās losing. And thatās just the voting, thereās also donations, volunteers, media coverage, etc. all of which can be significantly affected by how people perceive the race to be going.
The idea that good poll numbers are somehow bad for that candidateās voter turnout is largely a product of the 2016 election. Right up to election day the polls almost all said Hillary would win. And then Trump won. Thereās a number of reasons for that, but one of the ones that gets mentioned a lot is that Democrats stayed home because the polls all said they wouldnāt need to vote.
The context is very important though. Hillary was deeply unpopular even before the DNC helped her snatch the nomination away from Bernie Sanders. A lot of people would have preferred that Trump lose, but really, really didnāt want to vote for Hillary. Those people might have been more likely to hold their nose and vote for her if they werenāt under the impression that she was practically guaranteed to win.
I mean, who is watching FOX religiously and not voting, at this point? Itās the channel of, by, and for conservative GOTV ops.
I think a better question might be āWho is still watching this channel?ā And youāre talking about 2M viewers during the Prime Time peak.
Thatās a rounding error, nationally. And out of a pool thatās already heavily engaged.
Fox News still has incredible reach and screens tuned to it all over the place like gyms and barber shops even in my very liberal town. They are experts at the pretense of impartiality and a lot of people fall for it especially the non politically active which is sadly still quite a huge cohort of Americans.
Which is why I unironically wish to destroy them in particular. Not particularly picky either preferably itād be legalistic or naturalistic but frankly if someone wanted to blare pumped up kicks and go for a walk I wouldnāt care.
Pretend this is psyop propaganda designed to lull you into a false sense of safety-
AND VOTE ANYWAY.
It worked the last 2 elections. It will work again. I would also expect by the end of this election cycle we will hear once again how there are numerous groups forming on social media who helped form āprotestā and āsingle issueā voters.
That will engage their population to vote and put the āleftā at ease, maybe not to vote.
What they say doesnāt matter, the only thing that matters is for us to vote.
was about to say almost the exact same thing.
Regardless of whatever they say. Donāt get lazy. Donāt get complacent. Get off your ass and go vote, no matter what it takes
Democrats trailing in the polls = give up chance of flipping seat and donāt vote
Democrats doing well in polls = donāt bother to vote itās in the bag
Are the only good poll numbers nail biting 50/50?
There are no good poll numbers until after the race has finished
Fuck poll numbers. Iāve marked every political and polling message Iāve received as spam. They can find out my vote when I cast it. Go vote people, ignore polls.
The attempt of voter mobilisation I assume?
Yup
Yes, Iām still voting regardless. I donāt believe anything until I see it. And we gotta do it again two years from now.
Maybe itās because Iām autistic and think differently, Iām legitimately confused when people take news that they have a good chance of winning as telling them not to vote. If anything, shouldnāt it be taken as encouraging you to vote? The opposite is also taken as discouraging people from voting. Are people just that defeatist? You have no chance of winning, you donāt bother voting, you have a good chance of winning, you donāt bother voting
The goal is to lull people into a false sense of security. Voting isnāt necessarily easy for every person legally entitled to vote. Youāre supposed to get time off of work, sure, but the actual reality of that especially for shift-laborers, or parents with young children who canāt stand in line for an hour with them, or people who live in remote locations with few voting places can be quite different.
If they keep hearing that their side is likely to win and itās going to be a pain in the ass for them to actually vote anyway, then theyāre more likely to skip the hassle thinking they have the victory in the bag.
Additionally, hearing āthe opposition is probably going to winā does a lot to mobilize the maga side to get off their asses and vote, even if trumpsterās approval rating has dropped to pretty much just dedicated magats.
Iām convinced that 99.95% of the time, polls exist and are publicized primarily to impact the outcome and NOT to provide clear or unbiased information.
But donāt people understand that the victory being promised is contigent on them voting? I was motivated to vote liberal precisely because I was told they could win, otherwise I would have voted NDP feeling like it was in vain because conservatives were surely going to win
People were googling ācan I change my voteā enough to show up in the data after last election. The average person is stupid as fuck.
No one told you to do otherwise.
We gotta ignore the media because they are just the voices of a single rich asshole family that owns most of it. They want to prevent people from voting.
I hate that politics is like fucking sports. Just dumb stats and predictions to fill airspace. And the best part is people who think theyāre too smart for sports eat it up.
They both cater to natural human tribalistic tendencies.
āHorse raceā political coverage has been an issue for decades. Talking heads going on and on about poll numbers, whoās ahead, whoās behind, etc, etc, while very pointedly not talking about the actual issues at stake in the election.
Partly thatās because numbers are easier to talk about. Partly itās because actually talking about the issues would bring up issues that media oligarchs donāt want to talk about and donāt want to give airtime to.
And partly because theyāve got 24 hours to fill and not much actually happens in a given day.
And partly because really good journalism is slow, methodical, boring, and nerdy and it doesnāt sell ad space.
Fuck this world.
Any word on who the two conservative Democrats who vote with the Republicans to ensure that they canāt do anything meaningful, or at least symbolic, with the majority will be?
Fetterman is an easy first pick.
Iāve got my eye on John Hickenlooper and Mark Warner, as they have both been eager to piss in their partyās punch bowl before.
Gillibrand is another to look out for, as sheās been deep into crypto and AI. If Charles Booker can pull out an upset in Kentucky, heās going to be a friend of fossil fuels and the military. Then thereās the old stand by - Schumer, Durbin, and Schiff - who have been forcing the country to eat shit for decades.
That asshole in south Texas who got pardoned by Trump is a good bet, he sucks ass already
The graphic has 18 toss up (not very clearly marked) so Iād imagine the margin would be at least slightly larger.
I donāt believe anything Fox news reports. People still need to vote.
To make us complacent so we wonāt vote.
To motivate the fox viewers to prove those polls wrong.
If they said the exact opposite, youād also be taking that as discouraging you to vote
Unless they predict the current administration and several justices getting hanged, I donāt fucking care.
I donāt believe it.
These same stories come out every election cycle, especially from right-wing news sources. āThe left are going to take the senateā āThe dems are going to have a landslide victoryā
Itās propaganda with two goals:
- to fire up their base and encourage them to vote against the enemy that is somehow lesser, but also a threat.
- To create placidity in Democrat voters. If itās in the bag, then I donāt have to skip out on a day of minimum wage work to cast my vote. The landslide will sort it out.
Hit the nail on the head. Same reason I keep seeing polls about how all these places are going to vote blue. Their trying everything they can to keep blue voters at home and or invalidate their mail in votes, donāt be fooled go out and vote!!
If this actually happens and Republicans lose the House by a handful of seats, please donāt call it a āblue waveāā¦
Donāt worry, it will likely just be the ratchet locking into place, based on what I heard about the 100 days plan.
Seems to always be the caseā¦
Once they take the house and the senate, they can stop all that negative legislation thatās been passing, likeā¦
uhhhā¦
ummmmā¦
ā¦donāt get me wrongā¦ everyone should absolutely still vote, but even a massive victory is going to fix fuck all, and we should all be prepared for that.
Winning the house and senate would curb the Trump admin considerably. The admin will be playing defense rather than offense and democrats can issue subpoenas. Are we surely going to stop contributing to the Palestinian genocide? Probably not, but thereās a chance the progressive wing could withhold support for key votes and demand concessions ā in much the same way the ultra conservative wing of the Republican Party prevented them from passing some of their agenda.
I just doubt the democrats have the political will to make any real moves other than some symbolic blocks. I think the Dems run a cleaner show but they are functionally very similar to the Republicans. What does their platform even stand for these days?
Capitalism and warhawking.
At the very least it could result in a pulling out of Iran and blocking any further attempts to fund Trumpās nonsense. Hell if they need to itād make holding up funding a lot easier since a lot of agencies work on rather short term budgets, sure ICE may have enough budget for ages but what about say the ATF, Secret Service, or military?
Subpoenas donāt do much when the law just gets ignored anyway
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I hope gas goes up to ten dollars a gallon and Peter Theil somehow has a change of heart and becomes like Jesus and donates all his money to ending world hunger and making sure that tech companies behave ethically and transparently
I also hope they make another video game like deadly creatures where you can play a tarantula who acts like a cowboy sorta
Also dear God please make sure that Republicans fuck up all their shit like they already be doinā so intensely right now.
Amen.
