• lobsters__skyfaller@crustaceanson.theshelf.top
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    15 days ago

    There is some very strange cognitive dissonance in your comment. On the one hand, you say that efficiency will solve the climate impact of LLMs. On the other hand, you recognize that efficiency won’t solve the climate impact, in the same comment! You handwave the problem with efficiency away by blaming it on capitalism, but who cares why efficiency doesn’t work if you’ve just invalidated your own solution?

    For those not familiar, we’re discussing the Jevons Paradox, which says as we make a technology more efficient, we use it more, thereby increasing use of resources. I recently saw a fantastic framing of the Jevons Paradox:

    Making use of a resource more profitable increases the return on investment of exploiting that resource.

    So increased systems efficiency increases, not decreases, resource use.

    Unless your approach is to have a fixed expectation for capability and just optimize for lower and lower resource use to achieve that capability. Which is not how capitalism works, at all.

    I agree that this problem is almost impossible to solve under capitalism, capitalism needs to go, but let’s be fair, it’s still a very difficult problem for any alternative economic system. I’d say we should reject any alternative economic system if it doesn’t have some answer for this formulation of the Jevons Paradox; it seems like a good test for whether it can handle existential threats like the climate crisis.


    score 3 · canonical

    • Ahh, the “dissonance” is you’re thinking of the Jevons Paradox as being about increased energy use, when it’s more specifically about the increased usage of goods and services, not necessarily energy.

      You’re on the right track, but e.g., if LLM use increased 10x, but we’re able to make them 20x more efficient, the energy use will drop, despite Jevons. Alternatively, Jevons could drive 20x more carbon-neutral solar/wind development making the increased energy use of LLMs (and everything else) a moot point. This is what I think (and hope) will happen, even under capitalism.


      It’s unclear to me that the Jevons Paradox would be as much of a problem under other economic systems. To use its original observation about coal: yes, ordinary citizens would continue to want coal and electricity, but much of the usage was by capitalist-driven industry. Companies had to use more coal to ensure they weren’t out-competed by those who did.

      A more democratic economic system could weigh the trade-offs, and voters could decide how quickly and how much to adopt a new tech.


      score 1 · canonical